Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Uncertainty - How do you overcome it ?

Uncertainty can lead to your plans going haywire or even put a full stop to them. There are multiple variables that can affect your plans. Some of them can be controlled, whereas the rest are up to external forces!!

There are various categories of people..

a) Some of them plan well in advance.. maybe a few months before
b) Some of them plan a few weeks in advance... but without proper visualizing and considering uncertainty.
c) Most of them plan at the last moment, on whim. (and therefore depend on luck)

A few questions that come into mind while planning a trip :

1) Which all places do we intend to cover?
2) How many days would we need to reserve for this trip?
3) Is it possible for everyone to keep themselves free of any commitments (both personal and professional) for these
many days? (Ensuring the trip can be comfortably done)
4) How do we travel? Train/Bus/Air ? What are the costs involved ?
5) When do we want to travel ?
6) When would we need to book our tickets, so that we can "certainly" get the tickets ?


I noticed that point no. 5 and 6 above were most vulnerable to uncertainty. Also, point no. 3 introduced a delay in taking a decision on point no. 5 and 6, thereby adding even more uncertainty.

Me and my friends were planning to travel during an extended weekend, which introduced the possibility of a huge volume of passengers and therefore a surge in booking tickets. (Yeah, India has a huge population)

We decided we will travel by Train. Bus was second priority since its not as comfortable and fast as a train. Travelling by air was out, since I would'nt want to spend so much during a recession :) Also, travelling by air within India is not so feasible for majority of the population.

Now as you know, usually in Indian Railways, the popular trains are fully booked and the status runs into three digit wait lists, especially if its holiday time. The rule is that you cannot board a train if you have a wait listed ticket. The chances of the wait listed ticket getting confirmed depends on multiple factors -

i)
Weekly Frequency of train: Chance of the ticket being confirmed decrease as frequency decreases
ii) Time of the Year: Chance of getting ticket decreases whenever there's an Indian holiday
around the travel dates
iii) Popularity of the train route: The more popular the route, more is the volume of bookings and cancellations.
Also, chances of an extra coach being added to the train increase, though only an Extra Non-AC Sleeper coach - called
Sleeper Extra, is usually attached. This again depends on logistics - Power of Engine, Total occupancy of train, etc.

People still book the wait listed tickets hoping that their tickets will get confirmed. The demand for the tickets is so huge that every second counts after the booking window opens. (Both online and at train stations) The online booking website, IRCTC is good enough, but it crumbles under such a huge demand.

I would say its a privilege to get a train ticket under the above conditions. There is too much of uncertainty because of the above mentioned parameters and the burgeoning population and the inability of the government to ramp up the infrastructure at the same pace.

The best solution here would be to book the tickets well in advance, maybe a couple of months before the actual travel date or use the Tatkal facility of Indian Railways ( Special quota which opens only 5 days before date of journey) But then again, there's a mad rush for the Tatkal quota as well. Even that runs into high wait lists!! Also, you would need a superfast Internet connection and preferably multiple sessions on seperate computers to hedge the risks of not getting through the transaction.

Coming to buses, its gets even more difficult to get a ticket as you approach the date of journey. Seats sell fast and the private bus operators make a quick buck by hiking the rates as demand goes up, sometimes even doubling them. There's hardly anything you can do to avoid shelling out the extra premium for the bus ticket. You can travel by public buses, but only if you are prepared to spend long uncomfortable hours. Again the solution here would be to book well in advance so that you can avoid that last minute rush.


I know this all goes against the thrill you get planning a trip at the last moment and making it work. But that doesn't always work and there's a chance of you going through certain sacrifices.


It feels good to be sure.